Connect with us

Market Basics

Beta- An efficient Volatility indicator

Published

on

What is market volatility?

We define volatility as the ability of an element to change its state rapidly and the change happens in unpredictable situations. Similarly, when the market changes its direction rapidly when it is under the influence of external/internal factors or if the market is volatile by itself, it is known as market volatility. A stock market is a place where stocks of companies are traded, so a highly volatile market indicates the stock also adapt to changes easily. The types of market volatility include

  • Historical volatility
  • Implied volatility
  • Future- realized volatility

Volatility is often related to risks of loss of invested capital. Volatile stocks are riskier than less volatile stocks, as the price range of more volatile stocks is unpredictable.

As we discussed risks, there are 2 risks that affect the market. They are Systematic and Unsystematic risk.

Systematic riskUnsystematic risk
Systematic risk is a risk associated with the entire market.Unsystematic risk is the risk associated with a specific industry or a company
Geo-political tensions, inflation, and recession are the factors associated with systematic risk.Risks are specific to a company also known as microeconomic factors affect this risk.
We measure systematic risk using BetaWe measure unsystematic risk by performing a SWOT analysis, PESTLE analysis, management analysis, and other analyses confined to a company/industry.

Having seen the types of risks in the market, let us learn more about Beta.

Beta

Beta is a measure of the volatility of a stock, as compared to the volatility of the market. In other words, Beta is the measure of the risk of an asset concerning the market. The macroeconomic factors affect Beta directly.

There are 2 ways we can calculate Beta, they are

  • Regressive Beta/ Historical Beta calculation.
  • Bottom-up Beta/Fundamental Beta calculation.

Historical Beta calculation

In this method, we calculate Beta by comparing the historical price volatility of a stock with the historical price volatility of the market. The formula to calculate beta is

Beta= Covariance(Re, Rm)/Variance(Rm).

Another formula to calculate Beta is

Beta = Slope(Re, Rm)

Re- Return percentage of the stock

Rm- Return percentage of the market index.

The return percentage of the stock and market index is determined by taking the Natural log of the Present price from the previous price, that is

Return of stock = Ln(Present price of the stock / Previous price of the stock). Similarly, we take the present and previous prices of the market index to determine the return of the market index.

We can use Excel to perform this calculation with each step in detail.

Bottom-Up Beta

This is another kind of Beta that uses the factor of leverage to arrive at the answer. We perform various steps to calculate the Bottom-up Beta. We can see them as follows.

  • We have to choose a group of companies that form a peer group with our selected company.
  • The available Beta is levered beta, so we have to un lever them by removing the financial effects of leverage and equity.
  • Take an average of unleveraged Beta
  • We have to add the leverage of our selected company to this average unleveraged Beta of peer companies.

Bottom-up beta is more reliable compared to historical beta, as we take more companies while calculating the beta, which reduces the chances of error. As we discussed types of Beta and formulas to calculate them next we will look into what different values of Beta denotes.

Different Beta values

Beta value 0: A stock or asset which does not have any effect on the market on its volatility falls under this category. Investors believe cash has a 0 beta value, as it doesn’t change depending on the market.

Negative Beta value: A negative Beta value is very rare, but indicates the assets move opposite to the market direction. Gold assets fall under this category. But we have seen during covid that during the economic crisis stock market still was performing well and reached new highs.

Beta <1 but >0: This indicates that the stock value is less volatile in comparison with the market. Companies that are defensive in cyclicality toward the market fall under this category.

Beta >1: It indicates that the companies are more volatile than the market, the companies which are less defensive and affected by economic trends fall under this category. Technology stocks have higher volatility.

high & low-beta volatility stocks

Let us see from a table a list of low beta and high beta stocks.

CompanyBeta
Oracle Financial services software Ltd0.73
Indraprastha Gas0.73
Bajaj Auto0.53
Company Beta
Bajaj Finserv1.38
Tata motors1.11
Adani Enterprises2.1

Benefits of investing in high-beta volatility stocks

  • The Beta value gives us the volatility of the stock. It is risky to invest in a highly volatile stock, but this attribute of volatility also brings rapid and huge profits to investors.
  • A high beta stock chosen from a varied portfolio will enable diversification and decrease the risk of a major loss in case of non-diversification.
  • The technology sector comprises high beta stocks, we anticipate a huge growth potential owing to the latest advancements in the technology industry. A high-beta technology stock will have a huge growth potential compared to a low-beta non-technology stock.

Cautions before investing in high beta stocks

Investing in a high-beta stock can be a delicate decision, however, there are a few factors we consider before taking the decision. They are

  • Before investing in any risky company, the utmost important factor to consider is the economy. There are various macroeconomic variables like inflation, interest rate, GDP, National income, and unemployment rate which directly take a hit on the stock market. It is always wise to start the research from an economy that reflects the country’s activities.
  • Next is to identify the trends of the industry. There are 3 major trends Cyclical, semi-cyclical, and defensive trend. A company that is more immune to such trends is much more attractive. Along with which industry landscape and regulatory framework are factors to consider.
  • After the right industry is chosen a company analysis which includes SWOT analysis, PESTLE analysis, credit rating analysis, and ESG framework analysis can be carried out to choose the right company.
  • The financial statement analysis which involves a P&L statement, Balance sheet analysis, and Cash flow analysis helps an investor understand the business better.
  • As we have discussed earlier the importance of valuation in previous articles, valuing the right company is crucial to an investor. As “Price is what you pay. Value is what you get“. Various techniques such as PE ratio, PB ratio, and finding intrinsic value help an investor to value the company in the right way.
  • Finally performing various risk analyses and understanding the risk appetite is essential before investing. After risk analysis, the investor gets to choose between various stocks or between assets such as equity or bond depending on his capacity to take risk.

Finance World

Understanding Contingent Liabilities: Implications and Risks for Companies

Published

on

https://tradealone.com/

Introduction 

Due to the potential to significantly impact a company’s financial situation and outlook for the future, contingent liabilities are crucial in financial reporting. These liabilities are potential debts that could be owed due to past incidents but they are unsure whether they will come to pass due to upcoming circumstances. Because of their inherent uncertainty, companies must carefully evaluate how to recognize, assess, and disclose these commitments in their financial statements.

Understanding Contingent Liabilities

As prospective obligations depend on unforeseen future occurrences, contingent liabilities are crucial to financial reporting. The company defers the recording of these liabilities on the balance sheet as actual obligations until the occurrence of the triggering event is likely or inevitable.

Recognition and Measurement

To account for contingent liabilities, businesses follow accounting guidelines like Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) or International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). Two important requirements must be met for contingent liabilities to be recognized:

  • Probability

The business assesses the chance that the unknown event will materialise. If the contingent obligation is probable, or more likely than not, it is recorded in the financial statements and properly stated.

  • Measurability

This second criterion examines whether it is possible to calculate the contingent liability’s amount with accuracy. The corporation assesses the liability and makes a provision on the balance sheet to reflect its prospective effect on its financial situation if it can make a reasonable assessment.

Managing Contingent Liabilities

Companies must manage and reduce contingent liabilities in order to maintain their financial health and secure shareholder interests. The following are important tactics that businesses can use to proactively handle contingent liabilities:

  • Risk Assessment

Regular and thorough risk assessments are essential for identifying potential risks and exposures that could result in these liabilities. Companies can create suitable risk mitigation plans by analysing various risks’ likelihood and potential impact.

  • Insurance

Enough insurance protection is crucial for guarding against possible losses brought on by prospective liabilities. Companies should conduct a thorough risk assessment and invest in insurance plans that address the necessary risks. 

A few examples of this kind of insurance are general liability, product liability, directors and officers (D&O) liability, and professional liability. Insurance acts as a safety net, minimizing the negative effects of these liabilities on the company’s financial statements and protecting cash flow.

  • Contractual Protections

Limiting potential liabilities requires carefully structured contracts. The obligations, responsibilities, and extent of each party’s liabilities in the event of a disagreement can be specified through clear and explicit contract terms. Including dispute resolution techniques like arbitration or mediation can aid in problem-solving more quickly and affordably.

Impact on Investors and Stakeholders

Contingent liabilities can greatly impact how stakeholders and investors see a company’s management, stability, and financial health. There are numerous approaches to observing the impact on investors and stakeholders:

  • Valuation

Potential contingent liabilities may directly impact a company’s valuation. When calculating the company’s value, analysts and investors consider the inherent risks. If the firm’s these liabilities are substantial and their potential impact is severe, investors may give the company a lower valuation, which would cause the stock price to decline.

Tradealone
  • Creditworthiness

When determining a company’s creditworthiness, lenders and creditors pay special attention to its contingent liabilities. High contingent liabilities could make it difficult for the business to fulfill its financial commitments, including debt repayments. 

  • Shareholder Confidence

Establishing and sustaining shareholder confidence requires open disclosure of contingent liabilities. When businesses provide clear and thorough information, investors and stakeholders are better informed about the company’s exposure to uncertainty. This can  be achieved by describing potential risks and how they will be managed in the financial statements’ footnotes.

This openness encourages confidence in the company’s management and its dedication to overcoming possible obstacles.

Conclusion 

The effective management of contingent liabilities is essential for a company’s long-term survival in today’s fiercely competitive business world.

Companies can ensure financial stability and sustainability by proactively managing these liabilities. This allows them to focus on innovation, growth, and strengthening their market position, thereby generating value for all parties involved.

Follow us at TradeAlone.com to stay updated with the latest market news.

Continue Reading

Market Basics

The Impact of Options Trading on Stock Prices: A Comprehensive Analysis

Published

on

Options trading can have a significant impact on stock prices, both directly and indirectly. In this article, we will explore the various ways in which options trading influences stock prices, including through delta hedging, volatility effects, and market sentiment.

1. Delta Hedging

Delta hedging is a trading strategy used by investors to mitigate the risk of changes in the price of an option by buying or selling the underlying asset. For instance, if an investor purchases a call option on a stock, they may also buy shares of the stock to offset the risk of a potential price decrease. This buying pressure created by delta hedging can contribute to pushing up the stock price.

2. Volatility Effects

Volatility plays a crucial role in options trading and can indirectly impact stock prices. Options prices tend to be higher when there is higher market volatility and lower when volatility is low. Investors are willing to pay more for options when they expect significant price movements in the underlying asset. Thus, an increase in options trading activity can lead to higher volatility in the underlying asset, which, in turn, may result in higher stock prices.

3. Market Sentiment

Options trading can be a reflection of market sentiment, which is a measure of how bullish or bearish investors feel about a particular asset. When there is a substantial amount of options trading on a specific stock, it can indicate a strong bullish or bearish sentiment towards that stock. This sentiment can influence stock prices in the direction of the prevailing sentiment.

4 . Supply and Demand Dynamics

The primary ways options trading impacts stock prices is through changes in supply and demand dynamics. As investors buy and sell options contracts, it affects the perceived interest in the underlying stock. When there is a surge in demand for call options (the right to buy the stock), it indicates bullish sentiment, potentially leading to higher stock prices. Conversely, an increase in demand for put options (the right to sell the stock) signals bearish sentiment and could result in lower stock prices.

5. Volatility and Implied Volatility

Options trading can introduce additional volatility to the stock market. The prices of options themselves are influenced by market volatility expectations, which are measured by implied volatility. If there is heightened uncertainty or news events surrounding a stock, implied volatility may rise, leading to more expensive options. As a result, the stock price may experience larger swings as traders adjust their positions to factor in the changing volatility.

6. Options Expiration and Pinning

Options have an expiration date, and as that date approaches, traders may adjust their positions or decide to exercise their options. This behavior can lead to increased trading activity and volatility as the expiration date nears. Additionally, “options pinning” or “options max pain” refers to the phenomenon where the stock price gravitates toward the price that causes the most options contracts to expire worthless, benefiting options writers. This pinning effect can influence short-term stock price movements, especially around expiration dates.

7. Hedging Strategies

Market makers and professional traders use options as part of their hedging strategies to manage risk in their portfolios. When they sell options, they often hedge their positions by buying or selling the underlying stock. This hedging activity can affect the stock’s price by creating additional buying or selling pressure. For instance, when market makers sell call options, they may buy the underlying stock to hedge against potential losses, leading to increased demand and higher prices.

8. Impact on Investor Sentiment

Options trading can impact investor sentiment and perception of a stock. Unusual options activity, such as a surge in call buying, may be interpreted as a signal of positive expectations for the stock’s future performance. On the other hand, heavy put buying might lead to negative sentiment and dampen the stock’s price.

9. The Small and Indirect Impact

While options trading can have a notable impact on stock prices, it is essential to understand that this influence is typically more pronounced in the short term rather than the long term. The effects can be more significant for highly liquid stocks with higher volatility levels. However, in general, the impact of options trading on stock prices might be small and challenging to predict due to the complexities of the options market and other influencing factors.

Option Pricing Model

Here is a table of the most common option pricing models:

ModelDescription
Black-Scholes modelA mathematical model that uses five inputs to price options: the strike price, the current stock price, the time to expiration, the risk-free rate, and the volatility.
Binomial modelA discrete-time model that prices options by assuming that the underlying asset can only move up or down by a certain percentage in each time step.
Monte Carlo modelA simulation-based model that prices options by randomly generating a large number of possible price paths for the underlying asset.
Heston modelA stochastic volatility model that prices options by assuming that the volatility of the underlying asset is itself a stochastic process.
SABR modelA simplified version of the Heston model that is easier to calibrate and use.


The Black-Scholes model is the most widely used option pricing model, but it is not without its limitations. The model assumes that the underlying asset follows a geometric Brownian motion, which is a continuous-time random walk. This assumption is not always accurate, especially in the short term. The Binomial model and the Monte Carlo model are more accurate than the Black-Scholes model, but they are also more computationally expensive.
The choice of which option pricing model to use depends on a number of factors, including the type of option, the time to expiration, and the volatility of the underlying asset. In general, the Black-Scholes model is a good starting point, but it may be necessary to use a more complex model if the underlying asset is volatile or if the option has a long time to expiration.
ModelAdvantagesDisadvantages
Black-Scholes modelSimple to use, widely availableAssumptions may not be accurate
Binomial modelMore accurate than the Black-Scholes modelComputationally expensive
Monte Carlo modelMost accurate option pricing modelComputationally very expensive
Heston modelMore accurate than the Black-Scholes modelAssumptions may not be accurate
SABR modelSimplified version of the Heston modelLess accurate than the Heston model

Conclusion

Options trading can exert both direct and indirect influence on stock prices. Delta hedging can create buying pressure on the underlying asset, pushing up stock prices. Volatility effects can result in increased options prices and subsequently higher stock price fluctuations. Additionally, options trading activity can reflect market sentiment, leading to stock price movements in the direction of prevailing sentiment. However, it is important to recognize that the impact of options trading on stock prices is typically more pronounced in the short term, and predicting its effects can be challenging. As with any investment activity, thorough research and consideration of the risks are crucial when engaging in options trading.

Visit Tradealone for more Updates

Continue Reading

editor

What is Earnings per share (EPS) of a company?

Published

on

What is the EPS of a company?

A simple and unbending meaning of EPS is Earnings per Share of the company. What is known as the earnings of a company? The earnings of a company refer to its net income, which is obtained after deducting the cost of goods sold (COGS), operating expenses, interest, and taxes from its total sales revenue. If we take a P&L statement of a company, the total revenue of a company is seen in the initial line items. This is followed by COGS, operating & admin expenses, and then interest and tax expenses. A P&L statement gives an investor the outline of the company’s earnings.

The formula to calculate the EPS of a company is EPS=Net income of the company/Total number of outstanding shares.

EPS is profit that belongs to the shareholders and it says us how much profit a company has earned for every share issued. Without much more explanation, let us go to the core of the article.

Let us see factors that fuel the EPS growth of a company

Factors Fuelling EPS Growth

  • Increase in sales
  • Increase in productivity
  • Reduction in costs
  • Reduction in interest caused by debt
  • Expansion of business

Increase in sales

A company always aims to increase sales, but the strategies it uses makes a difference. The most effective way a company can improve its sales is by

  • Establishing a better connection with customers by providing user-friendly products
  • Use proper marketing and sales strategy to develop the business
  • Improving the business model of the company by being financially healthy, engaging risk management, and hiring an efficient management team which propels future growth.

Increase in productivity

A company’s productivity increases when the employees make better use of their opportunities. The ways the company achieves it are

  • Providing a learning platform for employees
  • Implementing a flexible and attractive work culture.
  • Paying the right worth of salary.
  • Implementing the latest technology to attain efficiency.

Reduction in costs

The net income of a company can be improved in 2 ways. One happens when revenue is given importance, the other way is cutting costs. After all revenue and expenses form the crux of net income.

A company will handle different ways to cut its costs, they may lay off employees, close additional facilities, streamline supply-chain, cut costs on marketing and sales strategies, reduce outsourcing of work and hire efficient professionals and much more strategies are followed by companies to cut costs.

Reduce debt and interest

Debt is an obligation that involves a debtor and a creditor. Companies often borrow debt to expand their businesses or to fund the current business cycle. We can find debt in the liabilities section of a balance sheet. There as long-term and short-term debt. However, if a company’s current assets are higher enough to clear the debt the companies are debt-free. This debt incurs interest which weighs loads on the profitability of the business. Lesser the debt the company can have high earnings and eventually higher EPS.

Expansion of business

When a company wants to expand it is evident that the company has a well-established business. By expanding the company can acquire new customer concentration, increase profits, and launch new products or services. The most important strategy of expansion is eliminating insecurity held over a single market. Diversification happens and the company no longer needs 1 client or the same set of clients for its profits. This ultimately results in higher profits if the company plans strategically on expansion.

We understood the ways a company can increase its Earnings and ultimately the EPS. Now let us see a few companies which give consistent EPS growth over the years.

In this table, we can see a few stocks whose EPS grew innumerably higher from quarter to quarter.

We previously saw how an organization can improve its EPS through various steps, but consistency is the key. A company whose EPS growth is consistent over a period is very much attractive to investors.

How can an Investor profit from companies with consistent EPS growth?

  • EPS gives is a direct synonym for a company’s profitability. A company that is financially stable gives steady EPS growth over the years.
  • One of the crucial valuation ratios the PE ratio and PEG ratio depends on the value of EPS. The higher the EPS, the lower will be the PE ratio and companies with low PE ratio consistently attracts investors owing to their undervaluedness.
  • Any investor considers 2 criteria before investing. One is the price appreciation of the asset, another is the periodic return generated. Which is also known as a dividend. A company with consistent growth in earnings indicates confidence in shareholders. An investor will prefer a company with a consistent dividend payout compared to one which is irregular in the payment of dividends.
  • The company with consistent earnings growth looks promising and the market anticipates good future potential. This increases the price of the stock from which the investor gains profit.

Incorrect earnings

Sometimes the company registers an incorrect revenue in the P&L statement to create false beliefs about the company. They do this by holding the revenue of earlier quarters and accounting in them in consequent quarters to manipulate the investors despite the huge competition in the market regarding QoQ results. It is appropriate to look for the earnings transcript call in the investor presentation which explains the detailed revenue growth of the company.

In this article, we understood the meaning of EPS and the factors which fuel EPS growth. A table showing companies with excellent EPS QoQ growth was depicted. And we saw why a company with consistent EPS growth seems attractive to investors. EPS is a powerful metric when it is compared with its peers, or industry or even when it is compared over a period of time. EPS in solitary doesn’t depict the true picture of the company. An investor has to analyze the line items in the P&L statement beforehand. If the company registers consistent earnings growth, lies in blue ocean technology, is defensive to cyclicality, reduced debt, and controls expenses, you have spotted a multi-bagger!

Continue Reading

Trending