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Cyclicality trends: An overview

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Meaning of Cyclicality

Any analysis gives better output if we start it from the bigger picture. Similarly, in the stock analysis, we use a top-down approach to determine the performance of the stock. Where does the top-down analysis start? It begins with the economy and ends with the company. The economic analysis will include various approaches and a prominent one among them is cyclicality analysis. Cyclicality is nothing but different economic cycles that affect an economy, industry, and ultimately the business. Let us take a look at how an economic cycle behaves.

From the above picture, we can infer various cycles of an economy. Each phase of the economy has a direct impact on each industry’s performance. While few industries are immune to economic contraction and expansion. This changing nature of industry performance that depends on economic prosperity & economic downturn is known as industry cyclicality.

Types of industry cyclicality

Deeply cyclical industry

This industry is highly reactive to the economic cycle. When we choose any company to invest in, revenues and profits are the key performance indicators (KPI). For industries that are deeply cyclical in nature, their revenue and profits are directly related to the economic cycle. In other words, deeply cyclical stocks are volatile in nature. The products produced by this category of industries are bought by the public when the economy is good and people restrict themselves from buying them when there is a dull economy.

Examples of this industry include:

  • Restaurants
  • Chain of restaurants
  • Premium clothing brands
  • Automobile manufacturers.

Let us see the companies which belong to this category in the stock market.

IndustryCompanies
RestaurantsIndian hotels, Chalet hotels, Lemon Tree hotels, Coffee Day, Jubilant food
AirlinesSpiceJet, IndiGo, Jet Airways, AirAsia
Clothing brandsTrident Ltd, Welspun India, Vardhman Textiles, The Raymond organization
Automobile manufacturersTata motors, Mahindra & Mahindra, Her Motorcorp, Ashok Leyland

Semi-cyclical industry

The industries which grow in the expansionary phase and shrink in the contractionary phase are said to be deeply cyclical, but the semi-cyclical industry also exhibits the same properties but still has some base-level demand in the market. We can see that the consumer durable industry falls under the semi-cyclical category. Examples of consumer durable industry include Havells India, Voltas, Whirlpool India, Blue Star, Bajaj Electrical, and much more companies that manufacture consumer goods.

Defensive Industry

Defensive industries are also known as non-cyclical industries. There is a term known as low-income elasticity, which means that an increase or decrease in an individual’s income does not affect the demand for the product significantly. As a result, these industries are immune to changes in economic cycles. General examples of defensive or non-cyclical industries include Food producers, Healthcare & facilities, and household products that fall under this category. Let us see companies that fall under the defensive industry.

IndustryCompanies
Food productsBombay Bumrah, Chambel fertilizers, Kaveri seeds, Mangalam seeds
Healthcare Dr. Lal’s path labs, Apollo hospitals, Abbott India, Sun Pharmaceuticals.
HouseholdJyothy Laboratories, Colgate-Palmolive, Godrej consumer products, Dabur India

We can have illustrated 3 companies that exhibit various cyclicality in business.

In this article, We looked into the meaning of cyclicality and how it changes depending on the changes in the economic cycle. We took an economic cycle graph to see how it passes through different phases starting from the Expansionary phase and reaching the contractionary phase followed by recovery. We discuss 3 types of cyclicality in industry and the companies which belong to such industries. A deep-cyclical industry is very volatile and is unsafe to invest in such stock during the contractionary phase. On the other hand, defensive stocks are the safest stocks to invest in. The cyclical stocks will regain their performance once the economy is blooming but defensive stock remains unchanged even when economy blooms from recession.

Finance World

Why Muthoot Finance is not affected by the small cap and mid cap fall?

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This week, if you’ve been keeping an eye on the stock market, you might’ve noticed something unusual. While the small cap and mid cap markets took a serious dive, Muthoot Finance seemed to just avoid it, falling by a mere 2%. So, what’s their secret?

What is the business of Muthoot Finance?

First up, Muthoot Finance has a strong foothold in gold loans. Now, why does this matter? Well, when other investments seem risky, people tend to fall back on gold because it’s considered a safer bet. With gold prices staying high, Muthoot’s gold loan business is like a stable ship in a stormy sea.

Muthoot Finance target price by Kotak

Kotak Institutional Equities is pretty optimistic about Muthoot, recommending a “buy” with a target of Rs 1,500. They think Muthoot is in a prime spot to grab a bigger slice of the gold loan market. Plus, with some Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) hitting a rough patch, Muthoot has a clear ground to expand and grow further. Unlike NBFC, Muthoot has a strong ground presence with offices and branches, they have physical repo with their customers, unlike NBFC who operate from AC offices.

New Friends and New Frontiers

Muthoot isn’t just sitting pretty with its gold loans; it’s also making moves. It teamed up with Evfin to finance electric two-wheelers across India. And there’s more – Muthoot FinCorp has brought Veefin Solutions on board to kick off supply chain finance operations. This means they’re planning to lend a hand to small and medium businesses, helping them keep the wheels turning. So, its a great news that Muthoot is expanding into fields that are not dependent on gold loans alone.

Spreading Their Wings

Muthoot Microfin, a part of the Muthoot Group, is pushing into new territories too. They’ve just set foot in Telangana and have their sights set on Andhra Pradesh next. This move is about bringing more people into the financial fold, especially in places where banking services might be hard to come by. This gives an edge to Muthoot over banks and NBFC.

Are you wondering whether to invest in Muthoot Finance or Manappuram Gold? Take a look at this:

So, What’s the Deal?

While the market’s mood swings have sent some companies into a pit, Muthoot Finance has managed to stay stable. Thanks to its focus on gold loans, strategic partnerships, and expansion plans, it’s not just surviving; it’s set to thrive. So, while the rest of the market might be catching its breath, Muthoot is marching on, steady as ever.


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Finance World

Infibeam Avenues Ltd expands into the US Market with an Acquisition

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Hello, digital pioneers and fintech enthusiasts! Let’s dive into a groundbreaking announcement for Infibeam. Infibeam Avenues Ltd, an AI-powered financial technology, is embarking on an exciting journey by acquiring a 20% stake in XDuce. XDuce is a mastermind in enterprise Application and AI development based in the United States. This bold move involves an investment of USD 10 million. This also marks a significant milestone in Infibeam Avenues Ltd’s global expansion narrative.

XDuce: A Hub of Innovation

Nestled in the heart of New Jersey, XDuce boasts a team of over 150 software developers. They’re a team behind the curtain for marquee clients like Bank of America and Morgan Stanley, to name a few. XDuce’s expertise in business application implementations and transformation is nothing short of legendary in the financial and insurance sectors of North America.

A Fusion of Giants

So, what happens when Infibeam Avenues Ltd and XDuce comes together? Infibeam Avenues Ltd wants to merge it’s AI Solutions and CCAvenue Payments business into the network that XDuce has built. This collaboration is about expanding business footprints, revolutionizing how AI-driven technologies are employed in fraud detection, authentication, and risk identification in the financial sector of the US.

Redefining Financial Technology

Imagine a world where transaction fraud is no longer a looming threat, thanks to state-of-the-art AI technologies. That’s the vision Mr. Jay Dave, CEO of XDuce, and Mr. Rajesh Kumar SA, CEO of Phronetic.AI, share. By integrating PhroneticAI abilities with XDuce’s solutions, they will offer businesses and consumers in the US with security and efficiency.

The Road Ahead

According to Mr. Vishwas Patel, Joint Managing Director of Infibeam Avenues Ltd, international business currently contributes less than 10% to the company’s total revenue. But with strategic moves like this, they’re aiming for international business to soar to 30% of total revenue in the coming years.

Infibeam Avenues Ltd at a Glance

Infibeam Avenues Ltd is at the forefront of offering digital payment solutions and enterprise software platforms across the globe. With a transaction worth INR 4.5 trillion (US$ 54 billion) processed in FY23, and a client base of over 10 million. Spread across digital payments and enterprise software platforms, they’re leading digital revolution.

Wrapping Up

The strategic investment in XDuce is a bold step towards Infibeam Avenues Ltd’s vision of global expansion and innovation.

Stay tuned with Tradealone, as we continue to follow this exciting journey of Infibeam Avenues Ltd. Stock price for Infibeam closed 7% up today. We also see a continues profit growth for Infibeam Avenues over the past 4 years. Although, we cant recommend a buy or sell call for the stock, however we feel this stock deserves your attention.

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Finance World

Satin Creditcare Expands its Reach by entering Telangana and Andhra Pradesh, stock has doubled so far this year

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In a country where financial inclusion remains a major yet challenging goal, the expansion of services to underbanked regions marks a significant step forward. Satin Creditcare Network Limited (SCNL), a leading name in microfinance, announces its strategic entry into Telangana and Andhra Pradesh. This move not only amplifies SCNL’s presence to 26 states and union territories across India but also underlines its commitment to empowering the economically marginalized communities with vital financial services.

A Leap Towards Nationwide Financial Inclusion: SCNL’s mission to drive financial inclusion is more than just a business expansion; it’s a pledge to reach the unreached. The opening of two new branches in Telangana (Warangal and Huzurabad) and one in Kadiri, Andhra Pradesh, is a testament to SCNL’s dedication to making financial services accessible to all, especially in rural and semi-urban areas where banking facilities are scarce.

Why Telangana and Andhra Pradesh?

The choice of Telangana and Andhra Pradesh for SCNL’s latest expansion is strategic. Both states have shown promising economic growth yet house significant populations that lack access to basic financial services. By stepping into these states, SCNL aims to fill this gap, offering microfinance solutions that can serve as a catalyst for economic empowerment and sustainable development. Moreover, Telangana is a fast growing hub for Pharma industry as the state capital Hyderabad leads the way.

SCNL’s Blueprint for Empowerment

SCNL’s approach to empowerment through financial inclusion is holistic. Focused on rural India, with 76% of its operations dedicated to rural communities across 97,000 villages, SCNL is not just providing financial services but is also contributing to the rural economy’s growth. This expansion is a stride towards enabling access to credit for the underserved, thereby fostering an environment of economic resilience and growth.

A Message from the Leadership

Mr. HP Singh, Chairman cum Managing Director of SCNL, remarks, “Our expansion into Telangana and Andhra Pradesh is a significant milestone in our journey towards a financially inclusive India. It’s not merely about increasing our geographical footprint; it’s about touching lives, empowering the marginalized, and contributing to the nation’s economic fabric. We’re here to make a difference, one individual, one community at a time.”

Ashirvad Microfinance is a fast growing company as well. Check it out if you are interested.

Beyond Expansion – A Look at SCNL’s Innovations

SCNL’s innovations extend beyond traditional microfinance. The institution’s portfolio includes loans to MSMEs, affordable housing loans through its subsidiary Satin Housing Finance Limited (SHFL), and the commencement of MSME business through Satin Finserv Limited (SFL). These initiatives demonstrate SCNL’s commitment to diversifying financial solutions that cater to various needs of the underserved.

The Road Ahead for SCNL

As SCNL carves new paths in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh, the future looks promising. This expansion is not just about growth but about deepening the impact of financial inclusion across India. With continued innovation and a steadfast commitment to its mission, SCNL is poised to create significant strides in empowering communities and fostering economic development across the country. Moreover, the stock price for Satin Creditcare has almost doubled in the last one year.

Conclusion: SCNL’s expansion into Telangana and Andhra Pradesh marks a new chapter in its mission to facilitate financial inclusion across India. By reaching out to the economically marginalized sections of society, SCNL strengthens its role as a catalyst for economic empowerment and sustainable development. As we watch this journey unfold, the prospects for a financially inclusive India appear brighter than ever. Despite that we do not see any positive signs from the revenue and profit growth of the company over the last 5 years. Thus, we feel that investors must be cautious while investing here.

Remember that microfinance companies also face competitions from the major banks. However, as this move is towards uncharted regions of Telangana and Andhra, we do not think that the banks would pose any risk to Satin Creditcare.

Call-to-Action: We invite you to join the conversation: How do you think SCNL’s expansion will impact financial inclusion in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh? Share your thoughts and insights in the comments below. Let’s discuss how financial empowerment can transform lives and communities. Also, please follow Tradealone for more such latest updates.

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